CMREG Model In 7.3.1 Lag Causal Factor Not Functioning Correctly (Doc ID 1385586.1)

Last updated on JANUARY 27, 2012

Applies to:

Oracle Demantra Demand Management - Version: 7.3.1 and later   [Release: 7.3.0 and later ]
Information in this document applies to any platform.

Symptoms


On : 7.3.1 version, Engine, CMREG Model


ACTUAL BEHAVIOR
---------------
The customer tries to use CMREG, but an unexpected pattern is present in the first few weeks

EXPECTED BEHAVIOR
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Normal behavior / before the upgrade did not presented this unexpected form

STEPS
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The issue can be reproduced at will with the following steps:
1. Run engine
2. Identify the nodes forecast with CMReg
3. Note the odd forecast shape in the first few weeks.
4. Manual calculation - go the coefficients of all causal factors from interm_results, and computed the forecast by hand. The calculations match the output.
However the problem is that the value taken for lag in the first forecast period is wrong: the system takes the value 0 for the value of lag in the first forecast period, instead of the value of the demand for the last history period.


Cause

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