My Oracle Support Banner

MRP Statistical Forecast Shows Unexpected Results/Forecast Values (Doc ID 2337943.1)

Last updated on DECEMBER 11, 2017

Applies to:

Oracle Materials Requirement Planning - Version 12.0.4 and later
Information in this document applies to any platform.

Symptoms

On : 12.0.4 version, Forecast in Test:

Users are testing an Inventory Statistical Forecast. They notice in the output they see the same value for forecast for each period after running the Generate Forecast - INCFIF concurrent request. They expected to see different values for the period buckets. Example data:

Forecast Rule setup
Name = P - Statistical
Bucket Type = Periods
Include = Miscellaneous Issues
Forecast = Statistical
Maximum Past Periods = 24
Alpha Smoothing Factor = 0.1
Seasonality index = 1 for all 13 periods

Forecast Set name = USC_Periods
Forecast = Top-Items

Generate forecast parameters
Forecast Name = Top-Items
Forecast Rule = P - Statistical
Selection = Specific Inventory Item
item = 781608002
Overwrite = No
Start = 15-NOV-2017
Cutoff Date = 15-May - 2019

The log file with profile MRP:Debug Mode = Yes shows the following data:

The value of profile option 'MRP_ROUND_SOURCE_ENTRIES' is N
The value of profile option 'MRP_IGNORE_ZERO_QTY_DEMANDS' is Y
SELECT MAX(PERIOD_START_DATE) FROM BOM_PERIOD_START_DATES D, MTL_PARAMETERS P WHERE ORGANIZATION_ID=101 AND P.CALENDAR_CODE = D.CALENDAR_CODE AND D.EXCEPTION_SET_ID = P.CALENDAR_EXCEPTION_SET_ID AND D.PERIOD_START_DATE <= SYSDATE ORDER BY 1 DESCSELECT TO_NUMBER(TO_CHAR(D.PERIOD_START_DATE,'J')),D.PERIOD_SEQUENCE_NUM FROM BOM_PERIOD_START_DATES D, MTL_PARAMETERS P WHERE P.ORGANIZATION_ID=101 AND P.CALENDAR_CODE = D.CALENDAR_CODE AND D.EXCEPTION_SET_ID = P.CALENDAR_EXCEPTION_SET_ID AND (D.PERIOD_START_DATE >='30-OCT-17' AND D.PERIOD_START_DATE<= fnd_date.canonical_to_date('2019/05/15 00:00:00')) ORDER BY 1
Input to BuildDmds, cur_cal_date: 02-OCT-17
SELECT NVL((0+MISCELLANEOUS_ISSUE),0), TO_NUMBER(TO_CHAR(D.PERIOD_START_DATE,'J')),D.PERIOD_SEQUENCE_NUM FROM MTL_DEMAND_HISTORIES H, BOM_PERIOD_START_DATES D, MTL_PARAMETERS P WHERE P.ORGANIZATION_ID=:org_id AND P.CALENDAR_CODE = D.CALENDAR_CODE AND D.EXCEPTION_SET_ID = P.CALENDAR_EXCEPTION_SET_ID AND H.PERIOD_START_DATE(+)=D.PERIOD_START_DATE AND H.ORGANIZATION_ID(+)=:org_id AND H.PERIOD_TYPE(+)=3 AND H.INVENTORY_ITEM_ID(+)=:item_id AND (D.PERIOD_START_DATE <= '02-OCT-17' AND D.PERIOD_START_DATE >= (SELECT NVL(MIN(PERIOD_START_DATE),TO_DATE('01-01-1900', 'DD-MM-YYYY')) FROM MTL_DEMAND_HISTORIES WHERE ORGANIZATION_ID=:org_id AND PERIOD_TYPE=3 AND INVENTORY_ITEM_ID=:item_id)) ORDER BY 2 DESCStatistical Forecast in TSEFModel function
  forecast, dmd[i-1], base0, base1, *trend, season[j-1], prd_seq_num
forecast = 305.000000 305.000000 305.000000 305.000000 0.000000 1.000000 12
forecast = 297.000000 225.000000 305.000000 297.000000 0.000000 1.000000 1
forecast = 290.400000 231.000000 297.000000 290.400000 0.000000 1.000000 2
forecast = 297.160000 358.000000 290.400000 297.160000 0.000000 1.000000 3
forecast = 290.544000 231.000000 297.160000 290.544000 0.000000 1.000000 4
forecast = 280.589600 191.000000 290.544000 280.589600 0.000000 1.000000 5
forecast = 277.830640 253.000000 280.589600 277.830640 0.000000 1.000000 6
forecast = 271.147576 211.000000 277.830640 271.147576 0.000000 1.000000 7
forecast = 266.732818 227.000000 271.147576 266.732818 0.000000 1.000000 8
forecast = 273.259537 332.000000 266.732818 273.259537 0.000000 1.000000 9
forecast = 268.833583 229.000000 273.259537 268.833583 0.000000 1.000000 10
forecast = 258.650225 167.000000 268.833583 258.650225 0.000000 1.000000 11
forecast = 257.385202 246.000000 258.650225 257.385202 0.000000 1.000000 12
forecast = 249.546682 179.000000 257.385202 249.546682 0.000000 1.000000 1
forecast = 242.392014 178.000000 249.546682 242.392014 0.000000 1.000000 2
forecast = 249.152812 310.000000 242.392014 249.152812 0.000000 1.000000 3
forecast = 255.437531 312.000000 249.152812 255.437531 0.000000 1.000000 4
forecast = 252.493778 226.000000 255.437531 252.493778 0.000000 1.000000 5
forecast = 242.844400 156.000000 252.493778 242.844400 0.000000 1.000000 6
forecast = 233.759960 152.000000 242.844400 233.759960 0.000000 1.000000 7
forecast = 227.283964 169.000000 233.759960 227.283964 0.000000 1.000000 8
forecast = 235.055568 305.000000 227.283964 235.055568 0.000000 1.000000 9
forecast = 228.250011 167.000000 235.055568 228.250011 0.000000 1.000000 10
forecast = 210.725010 53.000000 228.250011 210.725010 0.000000 1.000000 11
forecast,trend,season,seq num = 210.725010 0.000000 1.000000 12
forecast,trend,season,seq num = 210.725010 0.000000 1.000000 1
forecast,trend,season,seq num = 210.725010 0.000000 1.000000 2
forecast,trend,season,seq num = 210.725010 0.000000 1.000000 3
forecast,trend,season,seq num = 210.725010 0.000000 1.000000 4
forecast,trend,season,seq num = 210.725010 0.000000 1.000000 5
forecast,trend,season,seq num = 210.725010 0.000000 1.000000 6
forecast,trend,season,seq num = 210.725010 0.000000 1.000000 7
forecast,trend,season,seq num = 210.725010 0.000000 1.000000 8
forecast,trend,season,seq num = 210.725010 0.000000 1.000000 9
forecast,trend,season,seq num = 210.725010 0.000000 1.000000 10
forecast,trend,season,seq num = 210.725010 0.000000 1.000000 11
forecast,trend,season,seq num = 210.725010 0.000000 1.000000 12
forecast,trend,season,seq num = 210.725010 0.000000 1.000000 1
forecast,trend,season,seq num = 210.725010 0.000000 1.000000 2
forecast,trend,season,seq num = 210.725010 0.000000 1.000000 3
forecast,trend,season,seq num = 210.725010 0.000000 1.000000 4
forecast,trend,season,seq num = 210.725010 0.000000 1.000000 5
forecast,trend,season,seq num = 210.725010 0.000000 1.000000 6

The forecast = Top-Items then showed all period buckets with qty = 210.725 for all periods present and future

EXPECTED BEHAVIOR
-----------------------
Users expected different values for each bucket

STEPS
-----------------------
The issue can be reproduced at will with the following steps:
1. Create forecast rule and demand history data
2. Create forecast set / forecast name
3. Run generate forecast - INCFIF concurrent request
4. review output and logs and see only same value for each forecast period

Cause

To view full details, sign in with your My Oracle Support account.

Don't have a My Oracle Support account? Click to get started!


In this Document
Symptoms
Cause
Solution
References


My Oracle Support provides customers with access to over a million knowledge articles and a vibrant support community of peers and Oracle experts.